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(5) 大国战争的轨迹 The Trajectory of Great Power War | 人性中的善良天使
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Richardson reached two broad conclusions about the statistics of war: their timing is random, and their magnitudes are distributed according to a power law. But he was unable to say much about how the two key parameters -- the probability of wars, and the amount of damage they cause -- change over time. His suggestion that wars were becoming less frequent but more lethal was restricted to the interval between 1820 and 1950 and limited by the spotty list of wars in his dataset. How much more do we know about the long-term trajectory of war today?
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(5) 大国战争的轨迹 The Trajectory of Great Power War
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